The Apple Club Newsletter, Spring 2006, Page 4

I first mentioned the idea of peak oil in one of our newsletters a few years ago. At that time, a small number of scientists were predicting that oil production would soon peak, and that once production started to fall, that prices would rise steeply, as society (as it is currently structured) cannot survive without oil.
In the past few years, quite a number of more mainstream scientists have accepted that peak oil is very close, and that it is long overdue time to start thinking about alternative energies and alternative ways of living.
At a recent talk by Richard Simmonds, who is head of one of the World's leading investment banks, the type of bank that lends to energy companies such as oil exploration companies, he outlined how he believed that a dramatic fall in oil production is very close. He also outlined how prices could quickly triple from where they are now, leading to petrol prices of four euros per litre. And this was not his idea of an upward limit on prices. When pressed on this point, he revealed that he sits on the board of Jack Daniels whiskey company, which sells at $4800 per barrel (nearly one hundred times the cost of oil at present), and as he said, we need oil a lot more than whiskey. He was also asked about the possibility of going nuclear, but he is pessimistic of this option, because much of the best grade uranium in the world has already been mined, and to use lower quality ore means such vast mining operations that would render the process completely destructive of the environment, even ignoring the risk of accidents, and the cost of storing hazardous nuclear waste for thousands of years.
Regarding gas, he felt that it should be conserved, as it is the raw material used to make medicines, and is the most efficient fuel where clean burning is required, such as in cities. He outlined that it was completely wasteful to use it for generating electricity, and I got the sense from his speech that the longer Ireland keeps its Corrib gas off Mayo under the ocean (instead of bringing it ashore as quickly as possible), the better it will be for the future of the country, as in thirty years time, it will be much more valuable than now.
And if you believe him, in thirty years time, and roads of today will be as quiet as thirty years ago, and cheap air travel will be a distant memory.
A most interesting talk. To find out more look at www.peakoil.net, and follow the links from there.

Many of you may be aware that a new set of grants for householders has been launched by Sustainable Energy Ireland (www.sei.ie). Among the items that householders are entitled to claim aid on are solar water heating panels. As someone who installed such panels (for water heating on the farm) a number of years ago, I must comment that even without a grant, they would have been well worthwhile. For anyone who is interested, you ideally need a south facing, south-east facing or south-west facing roof, which is not shaded, and is inclined at up to a 50 degree angle. The types of panels that I have installed are vacuum tube collectors, which are very efficient. I estimate that since installation, the panels have completely paid back for themselves, and as they are guaranteed for another fifteen years (and will hopefully last for much longer), I will get more than half of my hot water free from now until then.
To be recommended, especially considering the cost of heating water these days.
You can contact Sustainable Energy Ireland by post at Glasnevin, Dublin 9, and by phone at 01-8369080

Peak oil

Solar grants

Newsletter Spring 2006		page 4 of 5